In the early 1970s, due to cultural and economic issues, the birthrate in Japan started to decline below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Today the birthrate is slightly below 1.3 children, and the population has declined four out of the five years between 2005 and 2009. Population decline is expected to accelerate over the next few decades with projections of 14% - 25% decline by 2050. Over the same time period, the proportion of the population over the age of 65 is expected to increase from 23% to between 35 - 40%. Japan's changing demographics are expected to lead to both a labor shortage and to insufficient resources for elder care.
Japan faces a number of choices to augment the workforce and cope with eldercare issues. A number of social solutions could ameliorate the problems associated with population decline, at least on a short term basis. For example, to fill the labor shortage the country could relax immigration policy, encourage greater female participation in the workforce, or encourage greater employment of elderly workers. To provide care and companionship for the elderly, Japan could open this sector of the workforce to already qualified nursing and care providers from abroad.
These solutions are not without complications because Japan is an extremely culturally homogenous country with a long tradition of resisting large scale immigration of foreigners. Also, concern has been raised that encouraging greater female participation in the workforce will further depress the birthrate. Likewise, older workers are viewed as lacking the flexibility and skills needed to usefully contribute to the workforce.
Investment in robotics is another possible solution that will help bridge the shortfall in both the workforce and in elder care. The Japanese preference for a technological rather than a social fix is not without precedent. Japanese engineers and scientists have been trying to create machines that reproduce the human form and movement since 1928 when Maknoto Nishimura made a robot called Gakutensoku, a large bronze machine he presented at the Kyoto Fair (Hornyak, 2006). Robotics took on a much more practical role during the Japanese economic boom of the 1960s. Hesitant to increase immigration, Japan instead turned to automation to address a labor shortage. The first domestically produced industrial robot came into use in 1969. There has been little resistance to mechanization from the Japanese labor force due to an employment structure where employees are rarely fired. Instead, workers are frequently moved to different sections when their tasks are taken over by robots. As the robots became more versatile in the 1980s their use spread quickly. At one point nearly 50% of all industrial robots on the planet were used in Japan. Now 36% of industrial robots are used in Japanese factories, while Japan produced 80,000 of the 113,000 units shipped globally in 2008 (Tanaka, 2010). Japan is now looking to robotics not only to replace their dwindling labor force but as a market they can capitalize on globally. As a result, the Japanese government has been pouring large amounts of money into the research and development of robots.
Japanese companies and universities, however, remain entranced with a different kind of robotics. They struggle to produce robots that look, move, or interact in an increasingly human manner. Many engineers point to the image of an old cartoon, Atom Boy, when expressing what they would like to create: robots that look and act human.
This Discovery Guide explores how Japan's changing demographics are affecting its society. It discusses the complications associated with augmenting the Japanese workforce by employing greater numbers of older workers, women, and immigrants. Then it looks at some of the robotic technology that Japan has been working on to help deal with elder care issues and supplement the workforce.
Go To Post-WWII demographic trends in Japan
© 2010, ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. |
