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Defining Sustainability, Defining the Future
(Released September 2005)

 
  by Ethan Goffman  

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  1. The progress of English and Welsh local authorities in addressing climate change

    Lee Allman, Paul Fleming and Andrew Wallace.

    Local Environment, Vol. 9, No. 3, Jun 2004, pp. 271-283.

    This paper describes the progress that local authorities in England and Wales are making in adapting to the threat of climate change and taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The responses from surveys of local authorities in England and Wales carried out in 2000 (IDeA, Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions: survey of activities and initiatives by local authorities. (Questionnaire and results) Improvement and Development Agency, 2000) and 2002 (Allman et al., Climate Change: a survey of local authorities, Local Government Association, 2002) were compared. Progress in implementing the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) five-step methodology (ICLEI, Local Government Implementation of Climate Protection-report to the United Nations, International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, 1997) was used to identify the `successful' local authorities. The barriers faced by these authorities were then compared with those faced by the remaining local authorities. Most local authorities are not making substantial progress. However, a small number have successfully prepared greenhouse gas emissions inventories, developed strategies and implemented adaptation and greenhouse gas reduction measures. These successful authorities have made progress despite the fact that addressing climate change is not a legal requirement. Their success is due to three key factors. Firstly, they have recognised the secondary benefits of tackling climate change, e.g. potential employment, improved quality of life and reduction in fuel poverty. Secondly, they have the strong political, professional and technical support necessary to champion climate change activities. Finally, they have worked in partnership with utilities, private, public and voluntary groups to raise the finance needed to implement measures both to adapt to climate change and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.; Reprinted by permission of Carfax Publishing, Taylor & Francis Ltd.

  2. Cities and climate change: urban sustainability and global environmental governance

    Harriet Bulkeley and Michele Betsill.

    New York: Routledge, 2003.

  3. Firms, governments, and climate policy: incentive-based policies for long-term climate change

    Carlo Carraro and Christian Egenhofer.

    Cheltenham, Northampton MA: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2003. xviii, 327 pp..

  4. Relative contributions of global warming to various climate sensitive risks, and their implications for adaptation and mitigation

    I. M. Goklany.

    Energy & Environment, Vol. 14, No. 6, 2003, pp. 797-840.

    A rationale for mitigating global warming (GW) is that warming might exacerbate many of today's urgent problems - hunger, malaria, water shortage, coastal flooding, and habitat conversion - which could be particularly problematic for developing countries. Recent assessments of the global impacts of climate change indicate that into the 2080s, except for coastal flooding, GW's contribution to these problems [ Delta P(GW)] would be small compared to P(BASELINE), the problem's magnitude in the absence of warming, i.e., under baseline conditions. Hence, mitigation can, at best, reduce only the smaller portion of the total problem [= Delta P(GW) + P(BASELINE)]. To compound matters, costs of markedly reducing Delta P(GW) through mitigation are high; moreover, because of the inertia of the climate system, its benefits are backloaded while costs have to be borne up front for decades. Discounting further magnifies this asymmetry between costs and benefits. By contrast, approaches that would help societies cope with or reduce vulnerabilities to the urgent problems noted above would, by reducing both P(BASELINE) and Delta P(GW), deliver greater benefits. Devising and/or using such approaches now would allow benefits to accrue in relatively short order, and help societies adapt to GW's future impacts, if and when those impacts become significant. With regard to coastal flooding, the exception to the rule that Delta P(GW) < P(BASELINE), protecting against such flooding (i.e., adaptation) is, into the 2080s, substantially cheaper than the Kyoto Protocol despite the latter's comparatively modest reduction requirements. Thus, relative to mitigation, for the next several decades the benefits of such adaptation are likely to be larger, occur sooner, more certainly, and more contemporaneously with costs. Hence, over this period adaptation is probably more cost-effective than mitigation. In particular, the Kyoto Protocol delivers too little too late, and costs too much. Importantly, by reducing hunger, malaria, water shortage, and habitat loss now, such adaptation approaches would enable sustainable development and improve human well-being in its various dimensions, especially in developing countries. In turn, that would further enhance their ability to adapt to or mitigate climate change.

  5. Life Cycle Analysis of wind-fuel cell integrated system

    F. I. Khan, K. Hawboldt and M. T. Iqbal.

    Renewable Energy, Vol. 30, No. 2, Feb 2005, pp. 157-177.

    After ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, Canada's Kyoto greenhouse gas (GHG) emission target is 571 Mt of CO sub(2) equivalent emitted per year by 2010; however, if current emission trends continue, a figure of 809 Mt is projected by 2010 (Cote C. Basic of clean development mechanism; joint implementation and overview of CDM project cycle, 2003 regional workshop on CDM-JI, February 2003, Halifax). This underscores the need for additional reduction of 240 Mt. The Federal Government Action Plan 2000 aims to reduce this gap from 240 to 65 Mt (Cote C. Basic of clean development mechanism; joint implementation and overview of CDM project cycle, 2003 regional workshop on CDM-JI, February 2003, Halifax). In order to accomplish this goal, renewable energy use in all sectors will be required, and this type of energy is particularly applicable in power generation. Traditional power generation is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions after industrial and transportation sectors (Environment Canada. Canada's Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-1998. Final submission to the UNF Sr Secretariat, 2002 [Available from: http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/resources_reportes-e.html]. Although wind energy, solar power and other forms of renewable energy are non-GHG emitting in their operation, there are GHG emissions in their different stages of life cycle (i.e. material extraction, manufacturing, construction and transportation, etc.). These emissions must be accounted for in order to assess accurately their capacity to reduce GHG emission and meet Kyoto targets. The current trend in electricity generation is towards integrated energy systems. One such proposed system is the wind-fuel cell integrated system for remote communities. This paper presents a detailed Life Cycle Analysis of the wind-fuel cell integrated system for application in Newfoundland and Labrador. The study confirms that wind-fuel integrated system is a zero emission system while in operation. There are significant emissions of GHGs during the production of the various components (wind turbine, fuel cell and electrolyzer). However, the global warming potential (GWP) of wind-integrated system is far lower (at least by two orders of magnitude) than the conventional diesel system, presently used in remote communities.

  6. The Ecological and Economic Potential of Carbon Sequestration in Forests: Examples from South America

    Fd Koning, R. Olschewski and E. Veldkamp, et al.

    Ambio, Vol. 34, No. 3, May 2005, pp. 224-229.

    Costs of reforestation projects determine their competitiveness with alternative measures to mitigate rising atmospheric CO sub(2) concentrations. We quantify carbon sequestration in above-ground biomass and soils of plantation forests and secondary forests in two countries in South America-Ecuador and Argentina-and calculate costs of temporary carbon sequestration. Costs per temporary certified emission reduction unit vary between 0.1 and 2.7 USD Mg super(-1) CO sub(2) and mainly depend on opportunity costs, site suitability, discount rates, and certification costs. In Ecuador, secondary forests are a feasible and cost-efficient alternative, whereas in Argentina reforestation on highly suitable land is relatively cheap. Our results can be used to design cost-effective sink projects and to negotiate fair carbon prices for landowners.

  7. Carbonising forest landscapes? Linking climate change mitigation and rural livelihoods

    Gerald Leach and Melissa Leach.

    IDS bulletin, Vol. 35, No. 3, Jul 2004, pp. 76-83.

  8. A Synthesis of Information on Rapid Land-cover Change for the Period 1981-2000

    E. Lepers, E. F. Lambin and A. C. Janetos, et al.

    Bioscience, Vol. 55, No. 2, Feb 2005, pp. 115-124.

    This article presents a synthesis of what is known about areas of rapid land-cover change around the world over the past two decades, based on data compiled from remote sensing and censuses, as well as expert opinion. Asia currently has the greatest concentration of areas of rapid land-cover changes, and dryland degradation in particular. The Amazon basin remains a major hotspot of tropical deforestation. Rapid cropland increase, often associated with large-scale deforestation, is prominent in Southeast Asia. Forest degradation in Siberia, mostly related to logging activities, is increasing rapidly. The southeastern United States and eastern China are experiencing rapid cropland decrease. Existing data do not support the claim that the African Sahel is a desertification hotspot. Many of the most populated and rapidly changing cities are found in the tropics.

  9. Expected halt in the current global warming trend?

    E. C. Njau.

    Renewable Energy, Vol. 30, No. 5, Apr 2005, pp. 743-752.

    The variation patterns of global temperature were considerably turbulent from about 1870 up to 1940. Then just after 1940 these patterns underwent a sunspot-related change and adopted to relatively less turbulent variability. It is established here that these global temperature patterns are currently in the process of undergoing a sunspot-related change from the post-1940 relatively less turbulent variability back into relatively more turbulent variability. This apparently imminent state of more turbulent variability is expected to stop and at least slightly reverse the global warming trend, which has been going on since about 1965. Besides, it is shown separately that the mean of 'global mean temperature variations' reaches the next peak at about the year 2005 after which it will expectedly be on a decreasing trend. Finally, it is shown that, contrary to projections made in the Third IPCC Assessment Report, Greenland is currently in an ongoing cooling trend which is expected to last up to at least the year 2035.

  10. Climate change and development

    R. K. Pachauri, Saleemul Huq and Hannah Reid, et al.

    IDS bulletin, Vol. 35, No. 3, Jul 2004, pp. 11-134.